After an epic series, the Golden State Warriors prevailed. The Dubs taking their first Championship since moving from Oakland across the bridge to San Francisco. From a basketball betting trends perspective, this final series had some interesting points to consider.
Basketball Betting Trends – Big Names Don’t Mean Championships
Celtics and Warriors battled it out for the Championship this year. At the start of last season, the Warriors were tipped 3rd to win the championship behind the LA Lakers and Brooklyn Nets. Injuries and a slow start lengthened their odds as the season progressed. The Celtics were at long odds with a team they had last year. Just a year older and not many additions.
So, at the start of last season, almost nobody predicted that the Celtics could make the finals. Come mid-season a lot of analysts and experts were saying the same about the Warriors.
Basketball is a Team Sport
Don’t fall for the hype of big names combining to walk a championship. The core learning from this last final series is that a new calibre of player is having an impact on the league.
These players are young hungry and extremely technically capable.
Basketball betting trends will start to reflect this. As a result, you should consider how a team of younger players gells together as opposed to a team of superstars.
Basketball Betting trends – Home Court Advantage – More Important
Home court advantage played a huge part in the playoffs. Win on the road and you have a great chance of getting through. Betting against the home side in this year’s NBA playoffs wouldn’t have been a smart move unless you bet on Boston who played with fire the whole way to the finals.
Expect home teams to play above their averages. As a result, keep an eye on how this transpires over next season’s playoffs.
How players are used at the end of the regular season when compared to the postseason is very different. As a result, many star players can rack up some serious stats above and beyond what any analysis would show based on the end of the regular season.
Big players gave big performances for teams in the playoffs. Unlike the regular season, star players are required to play heavy minutes and produce across the board statistically. This was very much the case this postseason. Players like Steph Curry, Ja Morant, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokumpo to name a few all carried their teams with consistently huge stat lines.
Off the back of the regular season, for the first round of the playoffs, player props are low for PPG, APG & RPG given players are rested towards the end of the regular season. It is worth considering this when looking at any player prop bets.
Conclusion – Basketball Betting Trends
Last season’s playoffs and finals were enlightening.
All in all, some of our preconceptions before the season started did not materialise. Instead, we have seen a longshot Boston Celtics make the finals and a top three favourite whose odds lengthen substantially mid-season due to injury also make the final dance.
True basketball fans are aware of the influx of new players to the league that bring a new level of skills. This season we have seen a turning point and an exciting new approach to the game.
Traditionally, conventional wisdom viewed teams packed with established superstars as having an advantage. This season’s playoff and finals have shown this not to be the case.
Player props may offer an opportunity next season in the playoffs if you are analysing newer players throughout the season and can see an advantage in total points in early playoff games.
Ultimately, as new players enter the fore and final scores trend upward you may want to reconsider previous assumptions over a number of previous seasons.