Regular Season NBA Betting – What We Can Learn From Last Season
It was a hectic season in the NBA. Ultimately the Warriors came out on top. However, in the context of regular season NBA betting, there are some interesting results we can learn from.
Even the Celtics who made the finals and finished with the second-best record in the Eastern Conference in the season just gone entered the season with little fanfare.
A core trend that we have seen establish itself over the last few seasons but copper fasten over the most recent one is the emergence of a new breed of young players.
As a result, there are a number of key factors to consider when making betting selections for the next season.
Regular Season NBA Betting – MVP holds value
A popular bet over the course of the regular season is Most Valuable Player (MVP). When considering how this played out last season we see that Nicola Jokic who won the award the previous season did not shorten leading into last season.
MVP Betting holds value as Nikola Jokic who is back-to-back MVP started both seasons he won the award over +1,000.
However, it is important to be aware of external factors around the MVP vote. Many believe that the Media has a strong influence on the outcome.
Price can fluctuate based on the media storyline. For example, last season Joel Embiid with lesser stats on a lesser team nearly nipped Jokic and Giannis Antetokoumpo because the media narrative wanted Philly to win.
In terms of MVP regular season NBA betting factor in possible media trends in your analysis.
Outright Odds – Media Influence
The media also influence the price to win the champions outright. The NBA is in an interesting phase right now with young players coming into their own. This results in some teams flying under the radar.
For example, in the middle of the season the Golden State Warriors were long odds to win a championship with Steph winning Finals MVP.
Super teams like Brooklyn (adding Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving & Ben Simmons) Philly (Adding James Harden) LA (Adding Russ Westbrook to Lebron and Anthony Davis) will always draw the media attention while young teams mixed with top-quality players have run riot this year, under the radar.
Finding this blend may open up some value in the outright betting market next season.
Resting Players and the Spread
With teams now resting top players during the regular season. The points spread for NBA teams can be pretty consistent with the bigger teams usually gaining a -6.5 to -10.5 spread but as mentioned before, teams rest big players on long road trips or back-to-back games.
The league is full of young talent and as we saw this year, anyone can get a result against any of the top teams in the regular season.
Seek value in teams such as New Orleans, Charlotte, and Atlanta that would be +6 to +10 against most big teams but have the talent to avoid a blowout. This may be a good approach to next season.
Total Points in Regular Season Games – Regular Season NBA Betting
Like most years, defense can sometimes be voluntary in the regular season. 3 point shooting is at its highest ever in the NBA and this year we have seen some very high-scoring games.
Many basketball strategists and tacticians forecast this trend to continue and in some cases more teams leaning on three-point scoring.
Timberwolves, Grizzlies, Bucks, Hornets, Suns & Hawks scored the most points as a team during the regular season which yet again shows that youth is getting more possessions and shooting more.
There is an argument that the new breed of player lends themselves to high-scoring games.
As the next season develops, observing if this trend continues is key to selecting total points bets.
When it comes down to learning from the regular season just gone there are many factors to consider. We have highlighted some key elements that may help with selecting bets for next season.
The overall trend is working out how the new breed of young players develops and if there will be any adjustments to counter current trends in offense.
The game is evolving and last season showed that many of our preconceptions, especially around teams stacked with superstars are incorrect.
All in all, last season showed that teams stacked with proven talent do not necessarily translate to championship wins.
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