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Advanced Soccer Betting Strategy

Advanced Soccer Betting Strategy

With the advancement in technology over the last decade or so, it is now incredibly easy to place a bet on your favourite soccer team and although the barrier to entry has now been all but removed, that is not necessarily a good thing. This article will give you an insight in to advanced soccer betting strategy and how you can improve your strategy for Premier League betting.

Because, although it can be easy to place a bet, it also means that bets can be made without any real thought or research and when that happens, your soccer wager has a habit of being filed in the loss column.

Which means if you were to repeat this process over the course of the season, you would likely lose more than you won and for anyone who wants to make any kind of living from sports gambling, this is not the route to profitability.

You can always find out more about soccer betting, particularly betting on the English Premier League here on


Of course, the term ‘value bet’ is one that is often bandied about and although it is a buzz term within the sports betting industry, many people are guilty of using the terminology without really understanding what it means.

Because although something might look like it is good value, it is not until you actually go through the mathematical principles of trying to find this premise, that a statement such as this can be qualified.


In any soccer bet, you can work out the team’s value (assuming we are working on the 1×2 or WDW markets), with the following steps:

  • First, you need to estimate the percentage chance of a team winning their upcoming encounter
  • Then you must find the best decimal odds available (decimals are always more useful than fractions in this instance)
  • Then, multiply the percentage you’ve estimated with the decimal odds
  • Any figure which is greater than 1.00 after the first three steps have been made, is considered good value.


Now we know the steps, we can put this into practice, when trying to find value before the weekend’s action and to do that, let’s say that Chelsea are playing at home to Liverpool at Stamford Bridge.

Let’s say the sportsbooks price Chelsea at 1.91 for a home win and Liverpool are priced at 4.75 for an away win. On this evidence, it may make sense to back the Blues and especially, with their odds at just below evens.

With those odds and to the unqualified bettor, the ability to almost double your money is an opportunity that is too good to turn down and for many people, this would constitute a value soccer bet.

However, those same people would be guilty of not carrying out the mathematical steps above and if actually were to look at Liverpool’s odds of 4.75, it would only need a 25% estimate for a value bet to be found.

With 0.25 (25%) being multiplied by 4.75 (odds) it returns a figure of 1.18 and this means Liverpool to win away from home at the odds above, would pass the necessary threshold in the continual hunt for value.

This means that in theory, if Chelsea and Liverpool played each other on four separate occasions, Jurgen Klopp’s men would come out on top once (as per the 25% estimate) and when you consider how good the Merseyside outfit are, that is not outside the realm of possibility.


Of course, any betting system is never flawless, and the most integral part of this system is making sure your estimates are correct in terms of wins percentage. Get this part wrong and you will likely fall at the first hurdle. When reviewing your soccer betting strategy, it’s important to keep this in mind.

Let’s use our Chelsea versus Liverpool example again and if we only had Liverpool down as a 10% estimate, then it would mean the maths would like this:

0.10 (10%) being multiplied by 4.75 (odds) returns a figure of 0.47 = no value

At the same time, to give Liverpool an estimate of that small amount, is borderline criminal and this would mean either the method to calculate win percentage probability is wrong or you have simply plucked a figure out of thin air.


Thankfully, there is a way that you can compile your own win percentage estimates and it goes something like this:

Chelsea’s last 10 home match form
Won 8 Drawn 2 Lost 0

Liverpool’s last 10 away match form
Won 5 Drawn 1 Lost 4

Then take these next steps:

To get Chelsea’s home price:
You would take Chelsea’s eight home wins and add them to Liverpool’s four away losses = 12

To get the Draw price:
You would take Chelsea’s two home draws and add that to Liverpool’s away draw = 3

To get Liverpool’s away price:
We would take Chelsea’s home loss and add them to Liverpool’s four away wins = 5

Which leaves us with
Chelsea 12
Draw 3
Liverpool 5

To get the percentage chance we divide each team’s individual score by the 30 matches.

For Chelsea’s percentage you divide 12 by 20 = 60%.
To get the Draw percentage you divide 3 by 20 = 15%.
For Liverpool’s percentage you divide 5 by 20 = 25%.

Here we can see that Liverpool would constitute a value bet, if we used our estimate of 25% and we now can use such as percentage, because of our results method above.

Note: These are dummy results, but the underlying principle is exactly the same in real life. Therefore, you can simply change the two teams and their form guides, to calculate your own win percentage estimate. Employing this information is a key part of any soccer betting strategy. 

In doing so, you can now bet with a far greater amount of insight, than opposed to simply backing the favourite to win each time and if you can keep backing those value bets, they will likely reward you in the long run.

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